Politics and population explosion
The Philippine Star
October 17, 2003

The Philippines is now the 12th most populated nation in the world. At the rate we’re growing, which is about two percent per year, our numbers would exceed the 100 million mark in 10 years.

Alarming is the fact that our population, currently at 82 million, is growing faster than an economy that has been moving at a snail’s pace during the last couple of years. Clearly, in the next millennium, newborns will have less and less food to eat.

Even in 1996 when the economy was at its peak growth of 5.6 percent, the Philippines lagged behind its neighboring countries, which were experiencing higher economic expansion rates from six to seven percent a year supported by a carefully controlled population growth.

Less Fertile But Still Growing

There are those who believe that population growth in the Philippines should not be a concern. They claim that the more serious problem is that the Philippines is on its way to demographic collapse.

Rather than worrying how the economy would accommodate two million Filipinos born every year, the pro-life and pro-family groups are concerned that time will come when the population would be insufficient to run the economy.

This school of thought argues that the country’s total fertility rate is declining at such rates that in 10 years, it would drop to 2.05 or slightly below the replacement level of 2.1.

(The replacement level of 2.1 is broken down into one baby to replace the mother, another to replace the male partner, and 0.1 to replace babies who do not reach reproductive age.)

In the early 90s, the total fertility rate or the average child for every woman stood at 4.1 easing to 3.7 a few years later. This year, the fertility rate is expected to drop to between three and 3.2. It might be interesting to note that during the 50s, the average child per female was more than seven.

Food Not Fertility

While it is true that richer economies like Singapore and those in Europe are faced with the problem of an aging population, such is not the case in the Philippines.

Because at the moment, the more pressing concern of inadequate food supply and basic services being fought over by a continuously growing population is difficult to ignore.

And yet no matter how much we argue on the merits of whether to grow or hold our population numbers, nothing much is going to happen now that the election fever is on the upswing.

Clout Of The Catholic Church

There is this belief that any electoral candidate that attacks the population stance of the Roman Catholic Church is a goner. And therefore, any risk-averse political aspirant will not jeopardize his (or her) chances by crossing swords with retired but still influential Cardinal Sin and his whole hierarchy.

But is there really a Catholic vote? Will Catholics as a block not vote for someone who advocates the use of contraceptives and other generally accepted birth control methods? Is the use of condom a valid political issue for Catholic voters?

The Myth Is Shattered

Threat of damnation as preached by the Catholic Church is not the main reason why Filipino women are not too keen about the use of contraceptives.

The results of the 2002 family planning survey of the National Statistics Office indicates that religion ranked only 11th out of 16 reasons as to why respondents avoided the pill or any form of external contraceptive. Surprisingly, health concerns topped the list.

Which is perhaps why some politicians are now emboldened to openly endorse a more decisive population management program that informs the public through training and information of the various birth control options.

Ignorance is a tested way to sow unfounded fear of the unknown. And by educating the public such fear is removed.

GMA Is Neither Here Nor There

The current administration says that its population policy is one of choice, where a couple is free to determine the number of children they should financially and emotionally nurture. In reality, however, current practices are stripping millions of Filipino families of that supposed right to choose.

Because at this point, the health care that the state should be giving˜including seminars on family planning and a wider menu of options including access to birth control methods – is in fact being denied or withheld.

Which explains why the United States Agency for International Development, likely in exasperation with the Philippine government, had already withdrawn support for the population drive by curtailing the supply of free condoms, birth control pills, and intrauterine devices this year.

A Ticking Social Bomb

There is really no future for a true population management program until elections are over. The simple economics of the issue is being overtaken by politics.

The debate of the pro-life and those for population management is now in the political arena unmindful of the reality that we have a ticking bomb in our midst. A growing population abetted by political expediency, coupled with inability to ensure self-sufficiency in food, is a volatile mix.

A growing hungry population is a social volcano ready to erupt.

Would the Catholic Church and the political leaders who dare not cross the Church’s position be ready to feed and calm the hungry multitude? Or is this something we just have to worry about after the May 2004 elections?

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