A MAJOR, MAJOR WEEK
The Philippine Star
08/30/10

It was a major, major week that started with Monday’s carnage aboard a tourist bus full of Hong Kong citizens, followed by the significant fifth place win of Venus Raj at the 2010 Miss Universe pageant, and ending with the “scintillating” 7.9 percent second-quarter growth of the Philippine economy.

Taking aside the spur-of-the-moment sentiment, we know that all three incidents will be blurs in our memories with the passage of time. We are grieved over the lost lives and unhappy memories of those caught in Monday’s hostage taking; for the moment though, only a resolve to be better prepared in future is our best take.

The comely Raj, on the other hand, reminds the world once again that the Philippines still has some of the most beautiful women in the world, never mind that our candidate faltered and stumbled when asked to name the biggest mistake of her 22 years of life. Heck, even Bush had been stumped by that question.

Last but not least, towards the close of the work week, another news item made it to the international press. In its release of how the economy fared from April to June this year, the National Statistical Coordination Board’s statement surprised not only Filipinos but also economists from our part of Asia.

After all, we can boast (for whatever it’s worth) that the economy of the Philippines had fared better than that of Indonesia and Vietnam. And compared to Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, even if our economy grew at a slower pace, it was still keeping step.

Election years

Another indicator that was highlighted in the economic report is the fact that the 7.9 percent performance during the second quarter comes after a 7.3 percent growth in the first quarter of the year. According to the NSCB, the last time the economy grew by more than 7 percent in two consecutive quarters was in 2004.

Not coincidentally, both periods were election years. Traditionally, this is a time when the government and more affluent candidates are known to spend more freely. There is a flurry of construction projects on the side of government that is enough to cause a growth spike on the charts.

On the other hand, the churning of political machineries provided new income for many people, which in turn generated money that boosted consumer spending power. Therefore, even if our overseas workers had reduced the amount of money they sent home, there was enough money floating around to keep everyone happy.

Considering that the global economy is still taking that slow walk on recovery bend and that El Nino had majorly hampered domestic agriculture growth, a gross domestic product growth of 7.9 percent could still be considered impressive.

Sustainability

Now that the national elections have been concluded, can we expect the same growth in the remaining two quarters of the year? Full year GDP growth has been recalculated by NSCB to reach 6 percent, which is one percentage point higher than the prognosis of regional economists.

Sadly, our government planners may be just a tad too optimistic. The fact remains that the “scintillating” growth of the first semester is election-related. Our colleagues in developing Asia, on the other hand, are experiencing growth because of strong exports, industrial expansion and strongly-grounded consumer confidence.

Except for our mined products (gold, silver and other precious metals), we have no other high added-value products that strongly sell abroad. In fact, we have no significant manufacturing capability to boast of. No way would it be possible for us to generate the kind of money that the Chinese industrial yard is earning day in and day out.

Even without El Nino, our agricultural sector will not be able to power the economy to higher growth. Depressingly, it may not even supply the required nutritional needs of our growing population, now estimated at 93.8 million.

Good thing we have our OFWs. In a sense, this expatriated working sector – or their remittances, to be more precise – is saving the day. During the first half of the year, they had sent home more than $9 billion, or an average of $1.5 billion monthly.

While the contribution of our OFWs has continued to rise, let us not expect this to fuel our economy to double-digit growths. Until we are able to decide how we really plan to improve our earning capability (Is it via tourism? Is it agriculture? Is it services?), we’ll never be a tiger economy.

Without a definitive national source of income, we might as well resign ourselves to what all poor families suffer: a life that is ruled by day-to-day survival, or in the vernacular, isang kahig, isang tuka. Now that’s sad.

Collegiate basketball fans top teams choice

There are three surveys being conducted by the Champions League (PCCL). Collegiate basketball fans are asked to indicate their choices for each rank in the ongoing competitions of the UAAP, NCAA and CESAFI (Cebu). It is interesting to note how the basketball fans view the final ranking of teams competing in these leagues.

For the ongoing UAAP games, 86 percent of survey respondents picked FEU to dominate the championship; 70 percent chose Ateneo to take first runner-up honors; 52 percent preferred Adamson for third place; 63 percent said DLSU would take fourth place; 42 percent rooted for UST to clinch fifth place; and 60 percent predicted National U to take sixth place.

In the NCAA tracking, the preferences were: SSC-R for champion (54 percent); San Beda for runner-up (81 percent); JRU for third place (66 percent); Mapua for fourth place (50 percent); Arellano U for fifth place (58 percent); and Letran for sixth place (31 percent).

In the CESAFI (Cebu) ranking, the choices were: University of Visayas for champion (78 percent); University of Cebu for runner-up (85 percent); South Western University for third place (56 percent); and University of San Carlos for fourth place (41 percent).

The top four teams in the UAAP and NCAA together with the champion and runner-up of CESAFI automatically advance to the Sweet 16 Finals of the PCCL 2010 Philippine Collegiate Championship games. The fifth and sixth placers in the UAAP and NCAA, and the third and fourth placers of CESAFI will have to pass through the zonal qualifying games to earn seats in the finals.

Visit www.CollegiateChampionsLeague.net to participate in the survey which ends on September 3, 2010. The site also shows more details about the 2010 Philippine Collegiate Championship games.

Should you wish to share any insights, write me at Link Edge, 25th Floor, 139 Corporate Center, Valero Street, SalcedoVillage, 1227 MakatiCity. Or e-mail me at reydgamboa@yahoo.com. For a compilation of previous articles, visit www.BizlinksPhilippines.net